One of the factors that constitute the (high) value of search
engines is the data gathering process behind the search.
With this they are able to produce information and knowledge.
This information reveals human (search) behavior, but most
of all it reveals search trends.
The most commonly known analysis methods in financial (investment)
analysis are technical and fundamental analysis. The fundamental
analyst observes the stock values on bases of company analysis.
The technical analyst (TA) is less involved with the collateral
value but merely interested in the trends of the stock-price.
The interesting aspect of TA is that it provides you a signaling
system. Without knowing the cause you are signaled which
stocks (bonds, currencies, etc) move in what direction. Take
care however with TA, because it is said that TA is like looking
outside the rear-window of a van and signaling the driver
which way to go to.
If you observe the search market and especially the demand
for search you can in the same way signal search trends.
To give an example with data from Overture on “management”:
- June 2004 -- about 2,000,000 searches of which 150 different
types (with “investment management” being the
highest with about 180,000 searches)
- December 2005 – about 2,200,000 searches of which
100 different types (with “property management” being
the highest with more than 200,000 searches)
Doing such an analysis is nearly impossible without the
services from the mayor search engines. First you need to
know the overall search growth on all the entries in order
to get the main index (to serve as a benchmark). And also
two measures are never sufficient to “calculate” a
trend.
Yet this analysis, how simple or profound as you might want
to pursue it, shows interesting information;
Although searches on management show a stable horizontal
trend (in absolute figures, perhaps relatively spoken the
trend could be descending), the changes between different
types of management are significant. To give some examples:
- Change management from about 14,000 in June 2004 (21,000
May 2005) to about 11,000 (December 2005)
- Performance management from about 11,000 (16,000 in May
2005) to about 70,000 (December 2005)
- Property management from 130,000 to about 240,000 (December
2005)
A next step would be to add the fundamental part to the
analysis. What is the drive behind these changes? This simple
demonstration is focused on management, but you could apply
this to any area. “Ask” you search engine for
data or start with a simple analysis yourself.
For SEO the trend analysis could help you in anticipating
changes. Just take care to turn left at the right moment.
© 2006 Hans Bool
Hans Bool is the founder of
Astor
White a traditional management consulting company that
offers online management advice. Astor Online solves issues
in hours what normally would take days. You can apply for a
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